Political oratory and people's fears notwithstanding, crime is decreasing across the country. But the drop has less to do with all the get-tough talk than it does with the fact that fewer children were born to American mothers in the 1970's.
Criminologists are sure that in the next decade, crime will rise again to record levels because of the far different demographic trends of the 1980's. And while no one has easy answers, the near-certainty of demography raises disturbing questions, among them: What can be done for today's troubled toddlers to keep them from becoming criminals a decade from now?
"I describe it as the boa constrictor phenomenon," said the New York City Police Commissioner, William J. Bratton, noting that the number of Americans under the age of 18, now 60 million, will increase to more than 70 million by the turn of the century. "We can see that bulge of youth population coming."
A survey by the New York City Police Department of 20 of 22 big cities showed declines in serious crimes reported to the police the first six months of this year compared to the same period in 1993. In New York City, homicides were down 15 percent the first nine months of the year, while robbery and auto theft were down 13 percent compared to 1993.
Criminal justice experts say the reasons for the drop in crime are many. Cocaine use has diminished in recent years. Local governments have imprisoned more criminals, and with longer sentences. More police officers have been put on street beats. Finally, and perhaps most important, the aging of the 76-million-strong post-World War II baby boom generation has made the population grayer.
Lookingn Ahead, Glumly
But, as Alfred Blumstein, a Carnegie Mellon University professor and former president of the American Society of Criminology, warned, "Starting in the next year or beyond, demographics will start to work against us as the number in the high-crime age group increases." Putting it more ominously, James Alan Fox, dean of the College of Criminal Justice at Northeastern University, said: "To prevent a blood bath in the year 2005, when we will have a flood of 15-year-olds, we have to do something today with the 5-year-olds. But when push comes to shove, prevention programs often fall by the wayside in favor of increased incarceration."
Nevertheless, politicians and police chiefs are already taking credit for the recent improvement in crime statistics, even though the reasons for the safer streets have little to do with the seductively simple solutions they have promoted in the past year. The drop in crime came before the $30-billion Federal anti-crime bill, with its expansion of the death penalty and mandatory life imprisonment for people convicted of three serious crimes.
Had such punitive measures been in effect, say, two years ago, they would have had only a limited impact on current crime statistics anyway, since the courts customarily only sentence repeat offenders over the age of 25 to death or to life in prison.
From 1985 to 1992, while the homicide arrest rate of adults older than 25 remained constant, the homicide arrest rates for males 16 to 20 more than doubled. And while 52 of every 100,000 17-year-olds were arrested on homicide charges in 1992, only 10 of every 100,000 33-year-olds were arrested for homicide. Because youth violence is more random -- teen-agers kill strangers more frequently than do adult criminals -- the rise in teen-age crime is at the core of the rising fear of recent years.
Crime always goes up and down, usually in five- to 10-year cycles. The national homicide rate soared from 4.8 to 9.8 per 100,000 in the 1960's and has hovered between 8 and 10.2 murders per 100,000 people since 1970. (In New York City, there were 1,645 homicides in 1975, 1,821 in 1980, 1,392 in 1985, and 1,951 in 1993.)
Try Demographics
Crime waves are fueled by drugs, guns, unemployment and breakdowns in family life. Criminologists attribute a dip in homicides from 1980 to 1985 to the fact that the number of baby boom youths between 17 and 24 peaked in 1980. Criminologists further predicted more than a decade-long decline in violent crime as the population aged; they just didn't count on the arrival of crack cocaine around 1985.
All things being equal, said Richard H. Girgenti, the New York State Director of Criminal Justice, "Demographics have always been the best predictor of future crime." Noting that the number of males from 15 to 19 will grow in the state from 570,000 today to 670,000 in 2007, he said: "I don't need a crystal ball."
